Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Random Bike & Non-Bike Stuff

Whiteface Mountain and the Lake Placid NY area is catering to Mountain Bikers - both the downhill and cross country types. I feel a road trip coming on next time I visit the 'Cuse. Never tried downhill before, never bombed down Whiteface in the summer on a bike. Me + Downhill? Do you believe in miracles?

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My back is coming around a bit. It takes stretching every day to keep it feeling alright. But alright, it does feel. I am going to take advantage of a day off and some good weather tomorrow, and try to knock out 75 easy miles before lunch. Looks like I'll be eating brunch, with a little luck, in a gas station in Chesapeake Beech. Who knows... if I feel really stellar I'll pile on a few extra miles when I get back towards the house. I doubt I'll feel that good but when you have an open day, nothing planned and nothing but the road in front of you, it's a mistake to foreclose any options as much as it's a mistake to take your opportunities for granted. So I'm going to cue up some tunes, stuff the back pockets with food and a $20, put on some extra Creme de la Chamois, and hit the road smiling tomorrow.

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Lance Armstrong won Fleche Wallone! In 1996. I know who won today's race but I won't spoil it for people who are dying to see 15 minutes of Fleche Wallone coverage on Versus this Sunday. But I will tell you, it's tough to avoid finding out who won it. Better avoid Velo News. And Pez. And Cycling News. And Pro Peloton. And Bike Radar. And Bicycling. And...

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How Cancellara really won Paris Roubaix...

I'z Inside Boonenzes OODA Loop... Eatin' Hiz Cheezburgrz.


I'm not joking. Riis and Cancellara got completely inside of Boonen's OODA loop. Cancellara tested Boonen a few times and figured out that Big Tom's strategy was to hold Cancellara's wheel and outsprint him - Boonen can't bridge to Cancellara, and Cancellara can't shake Boonen if he's on the wheel, and because Cancellara can't outsprint Boonen he needed to get into Roubaix without Boonen on his wheel. That part of the strategy isn't brain surgery. What was brain surgery...

The trick was for Cancellara to get away clean some distance from the finish. Riis and Cancellara surmised that Boonen assumed that Cancellara would go with 40km left in the race - it worked the week before, right, and it's about as far out as Cancellara has broken for the finish. So at 54km, when Boonen headed to the rear to chow down a bit, they knew, absolutely knew, that Boonen was expecting Cancellara to go maybe 20 minutes later, somewhere around 40km, and Boonen wouldn't get a chance to eat and drink during the last hour because it'd take everything to hold Cancellara's wheel. Instead of wisely holding the wheel and eating right there, Boonen's slide to the rear tipped his belief that Cancellara wasn't a breakaway threat just yet. Riis and Cancellara observed Boonen slipping back to hit the buffet, oriented themselves to him - thinking about what Boonen is capable of, and why he'd start a feed at 54km - and determined that it meant Boonen wasn't expecting or prepared for a move just yet. So Riis pulled the trigger, screamed at Cancellara to go, and ol' Spartacus headed for the exit at top speed, pausing only briefly as he passed a couple guys slightly up the road. If you've ever wondered what it looks like to get inside the OODA Loop, that was it. Call it "reading the race" if you will, it's a complex analytical process that Riis has mastered in the context of a classics race, just as Bruyneel has mastered it in the grand tours. Yes, Cancellara is strong, but he had only one good path to the podium, and he pulled it off. I'm blown away by how well executed the move was and think Riis isn't getting enough love for his part in it.

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Interesting. Reuters claims that global warming caused the Icelandic volcano to blow because less surface ice meant less pressure on the Earth's crust, and with less pressure volcanoes are more likely to blow. I'm told there are real scientific studies backing this up, just like there's real scientific, er, assumptions relating to missing data we're not supposed to mention, backing up the 'hockey stick' graph. If we accept that tectonic plate movement causes volcanoes - plates rub together, rock melts, there's big pressure, and it eventually blows - and we conclude that a lack of ice on the surface causes an adjustment in the plates leading to more volcanoes, then it's reasonable to assume that earthquakes are also caused by global warming. I suppose if enough ice melts, Guam may tip over or great fissures may open up in the Earth where the tectonic plates used to connect to each other, and demons will storm out.* We're doomed. DOOOOOMED, I tell you. Global Warming: is there anything it can't do?

*Okay. I made up the part about the demons. But there are people with PhD's who will tell you the rest of the stuff is true. As for Guam flipping upside down due to overpopulation, somebody in Congress said that so you know it's true. As for volcanoes and earthquakes and AGW... well, it sounds intuitive enough if you're talking about local geological phenomena, just as I'm skeptical about the global aspect of AGW but definitely a believer in substantial local and regional anthropogenic warming. If teh warmening really is behind earthquakes and volcanoes, then we need to boost the space program NOW because if a bunch of cars and powerplants are enough to rend the Earth apart, then we're living on the geologic equivalent of a month-to-month lease and it's time to find a new place to store our toothbrush and an extra pair of underwear.

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Do I need to remind you again why the NHL is the greatest of our major sports leagues? Okay, fine. I will. In no other sport does the referee put the equivalent of a dunce cap on the players and allow the rest of the 'class' to taunt him. The Green Men definitely represent here.



Hockey's a hard luck kind of sport, like football or rugby or Ozzie rules. There's no quarter given and none asked, particularly in the playoffs. The fundamental honesty of it is appealing, and in a seven game series the team that has the greatest quantity of talent+grit+effort generally wins. Unless a goalie goes on a huge streak in which case your heart gets broken roughly 31 times a game. I *love* hockey.

10 comments:

Burt Friggin' Hoovis said...

I heard about the Green Men on the Puck Podcast, but that's the 1st time I've seen them...friggin' hilarious.

Thanks,
Burt

Burt Friggin' Hoovis said...

Check out this interview with those dudes...funny stuff.

Thanks,
Burt

Jim said...

Thanks for that Burt. Holy crap, that's the funniest hockey clowning I've seen since Claude Scott.

Scott T. said...

the thing about Cancellara's "attack" that I thought was brilliant was the fact that he never stood up. He didn't do the standard, dramatic, "look at me I'm attacking," stand up and sprint forward. It was a very smooth, seated acceleration. I bet if he had stood up and started swaying his ass around in the air, Boonen would have dropped his Enervit and reflexively sprinted up to his wheel. Instead, Cancellara already had 100 meters when Boonen finally noticed "hey, htf did he get up there!"

Big Mikey said...

Playoff hockey is the best thing going in sports. The intensity is unbelievable.

Anonymous said...

Cance has a lot of trust in Riis to go through the guys up the road without looking back. I like the analysis, but FC was the strongest and in a race like PR the strongest usually wins. As we saw in e3, all FC needed was a corner to get a gap that an all out sprinting TB couldn't close.
Jim

Jim said...

Jim 8:41 - I'm with you up to a point. The strongest guy often wins Roubaix, but how do you define strong? If it's within 200 meters, that's Hushovd or Boonen or maybe Gilbert, depending on how the race shook out. If it's 3000 to about 700 meters, that's probably Cancellara, so too if it's from 40km.

Strongest guy + best tactics win. You think Knaven or Ballerini or Dirk Demol were the strongest guys? I don't think so. I think they were strong, but had the best tactics. Cancellara is a horse, but he only has a gallop, not a sprint.

Seph said...

You just referenced the ooda loop. That totally freaks me out.

Bluenoser said...

Thanks for the Green Men Stuff Jim and Bert. First I've seen it. Too Good.

And Yes Jim a good goalie can break your heart in the playoffs, just ask Don Cherry or any of the Boston Bruins.

Or as anyone from my neck of the woods would call them... Goldies.

-B

Big Mike said...

I'm amazed at the focus on cycling and little green men.

Surely it's a much more important talking point to highlight the complete stupidity of an elected official that can't tell the difference between an overloaded boat and an over populated island.

The fact that the news article needed to explicitly state that "Like other islands, Guam is attached to the sea floor" is a sad commentary on gaps that exist in the general knowledge of the general population.