Interesting. If this is true, then it probably qualifies as an inconvenient truth. A really, really inconvenient one. It'd be cool if any of my readers were actual climate scientists and could chime in on what's going on here, particularly w/r/t climategate. I don't know enough about the topic to comment knowledgeably. I do know that all the millenarian talk I've heard over the last couple years w/r/t anthropogenic global warming makes me deeply distrustful.* millenarian movements - and I'm starting to view a lot of the people espousing a need for really extreme change right now as millenarians - have a history of going very badly in the end.
* If it makes you feel any better, I don't know that the skeptics are right either. I'm a skeptic of both sides, if that makes sense - just that the skeptics (who urge, "Don't do anything") strike me as less threatening that the non-skeptics (who urge "Do what I say") at least in an ecumenical sense. I'm always distrustful of people who want more power, maybe because I know I couldn't be trusted with it myself.
11 comments:
my initial reaction to this is that we don't know who this scientist is and it was found on youtube.
It's Anthony Watts. He's a retired meteorologist and a fairly prominent skeptic (of anthropogenic climate change, not climate change generally) who runs Watts Up With That. He's not not-green; the guy dabbles in alternative energy, drives an electric car and all that. His big thing for a long time has been hammering on the methodology used for ground measurements of temperature and in particular he goes after what he thinks are unsound measuring stations - readers send him pictures of official temperature stations that are immediately adjacent to houses, relocated from the shade into the sun, etc. I don't know if that particular project undermines the data in the aggregate but he's collected a lot of anecdotes to illustrate potentially unreliable data points.
Not sure about all this talk about temperature, but the graph looks strikingly similar to some rides I take out past Marshall, Virginia.
I was just thinking it looked like my power chart from a crit. A really, really, evil crit.
The problem I see with climategate and the whole global warming movement is the politicization of science and the antagonism it has needlessly created. It's like battle lines have been drawn between the enlightened believers and the neanderthal deniers, when in fact, everyone wishes for a clean environment for the future one way or another. For example, are there many humans around that crap in their food before they eat it? When the enlightened ones cook the books to prove their "science" it starts looking less like science and more like extortion based on a belief. Kinda like some religions in a way.
Copenhagen has proven one thing at least, with it's thousands of private jets, lobbyists, limos and speeches. The Climate has become BIG BUSINESS. I say follow the money.
I guess you can argue anything regarding climate change. It's it the Earth's natural cycle or not? I don't know.
What I do know is that we (humans) have gotten a bit sloppy with caring for our resources and that we need to get a little more tight with how we run this big business called living on earth.
We are getting pushed to invent and adapt new technology that will help sustain our natural resources longer and keep our air and water cleaner.
If that is what comes out of Copenhagen, then it's a good thing...and maybe your baby seal that you clubbed will have a chance.
I've got a climate guy/scientist at work. I'll run this watts dude past him and get his reaction.
I like Robb's reaction. People get so polarized.
Even if you discount climate all together... There's still the resources side of things. It's like a pie. If we cut the pieces evenly and it'll feed 8. Some big guy may want 2 and screw everyone else. The others might be nice and just cut their portion down to still feed 8, or they might war.
Either way theres only so much pie and we're scarfing down other peoples pieces with no recognition that there's a bottom to the plate....or that we're causing others to miss out.
Now, if you're the bully and you don't care....eat away. However, some day you may grow up and have kids. Try telling them you and grandpa stuffed yourselves silly and threw pie on the floor and that their's nothing left for them.
Also...when people look back through millenium of temperature records... they do seem to forget that a lot of those spikes corresponded with massive global extinctions of which the largest and biggest consumers always perished.
Adam's comment = don't worry, do whatever you want and technology will save us. Often technology is a little late to the party....just ask anyone who's relatives died of polio or any other number of diseases.
Technology may save you from feeling guilty...but it doesn't help the other 80% of the population who just happen to live where we send our garbage or remove our fuel.
Jim's right. I should just join a puritan cult and get my guilt that way.
Jim-
I don't think there's much to that presentation.
It's cherry-picked and incomplete- it doesn't even attempt to address the issue in a reasonable way.
The IPCC report is online- you can look at a much more detailed analysis of these issues there- it's actually very interesting and you can look at the synopsis for policy makers if you don't want to get too technical
http://www.ipcc.ch/
Climate scientists are well aware of these patterns. They know the earth has been warm in the past. And they know of other forces that cause such cycles.
For example, there are periods of greater and lesser radiation from the sun, and periodicity in the main distance of the earth from the sun and the earth's tilt (and it's procession.) Also, there's El nino, cooling from volcanoes, surface reflection, etc.
Also, just because it was warm in Greenland 1000 years ago, it doesn't mean it was warmer GLOBALY, and in fact a recent paper in Science Magazine says that it was in fact cooler globally during that period. (http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/326/5957/1256)
Also, just because it was better for farmers in Iceland doesn't mean the world was more hospitable to human everywhere. One consequence of modern global warming is that shipping channels are opening up in the Arctic- that opens up new opportunities for some people, while others may be displace from their homes elsewhere on the planet, or die of draught while others get floods.
The climate scientists are well aware of the periods or warmth and ice ages- and in fact it has been shown to correlate with CO2 levels.
The real question is not whether the earth has been warm (and sometimes warmer) in the past- it has. and the point is not that its not better to be in an interglacial period than to be under a mile of ice. the questions I would say are
-is the earth heating up compared to pre-industrial levels? - yes
-is the rise temperature largely caused by man? the overwhelming evidence and the assessment of most experts and the consensus of the many scientific bodies is that it is
-what is the extend and consequences of this going to be (hard to say with precision, but it doesn't look good)
-and if it looks like trouble coming,what are we going to do about it (I'm doubtful of our ability to react)
those who say do nothing are heavily backed by those who benefit from the status quo. the CO2 generating industries and public. and they have the advantage of relying on human nature who are not inclined to make sacrifices or change to solve a problem that will hit us off in the future.
science isn't perfect, and neither are scientists. but that's our best bet to figure this out, not the self-interested producers of CO2. they are the ones who currently hold the real power.
as for the skeptics- it's always good to question science, but this presentation looks pretty weak to me. a Medieval warm period in selected areas or the acknowledgment of glacial and interglacial periods (which is established science) doesn't address the question of anthropogenic global warming in the present.
I've been reading about this stuff, but I'm no expert. I'm sure other can point to plenty of other facts this guy left out of his presentation
marc
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